All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over parts of Missouri to northern Arkansas, and also over and near western Oklahoma.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241249

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS…AND ALSO OVER AND NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over parts of Missouri to northern Arkansas, and also over and near western Oklahoma.

Synopsis

Positively tilted mid/upper-level troughing should shift slowly eastward through the period, from the West Coast States to the northern Rockies, Great Basin and southern CA. Several shortwaves will pivot through the associated tightly cyclonic regime astride the trough, then eject into the downstream southwest flow. Additional perturbations will move northeastward in continuing southwest flow over the southern Rockies and central Plains, closer to a pronounced anticyclone whose 500-mb high should move slowly northeastward over OK. Ridging accompanying that high should build northeastward to southern Hudson Bay by the end of the period. A broad fetch of deep-layer moisture was apparent in moisture-channel imagery and surface analysis from northwestern MX across the Four Corners to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

Otherwise, the 11Z surface chart showed a long-lived, quasistationary frontal zone from Atlantic waters off the Carolinas, southwestward over northern FL, to coastal LA, then northwestward as a warm front across southern/western OK to a low near DDC. Rich moisture has spread through the front over central eastern OK and into southern/central KS, with upper 60s and greater surface dewpoints. The low is expected to move/redevelop into the north-central KS/south-central NE vicinity by 00Z, with warm frontogenesis to its east across the southern IA/northern NE area. A separate cold front – analyzed from eastern MT southwestward over northwestern UT and southern NV – should move slowly eastward through the period, reaching the western Dakotas, central WY and southwestern UT by 12Z tomorrow.

Four Corners to Central High Plains

Again today, the persistent monsoonal moisture plume (somewhat eastward-displaced from previous days) should host widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits possible over the High Plains portion of the outlook area.

Diurnal heating of higher terrain from just south of I-40 across the Four Corners, San Juans, and assorted ranges from there to the Laramies and Front Range, should remove MLCINH quickly into early afternoon, fostering deep convective growth. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less) due to a lack of both 1. Stronger/backed near-surface flow and 2. Greater CAPE density and buoyant depth (related to modest lapse rates aloft in the monsoonal plume). Still, the southeastern fringe of the mass response in upper levels to the Western CONUS troughing should yield enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with translational vector augmentation of outflow winds possibly contributing to marginal severe potential. The main supporting factor for downdraft intensity will be a well-mixed subcloud layer beneath around 200-800 J/kg ambient MLCAPE.

MO/AR

An MCV was apparent in composited radar imagery over southeastern NE between LNK-FNB, and should pivot slowly southeastward through the day. Associated regionally enhanced low-level moist/warm advection, and isentropic lift to LFC, have been supporting swath of elevated convection now over portions of northwestern MO. Lightning coverage and cooling IR cloud tops have been noted the past hour in a roughly north/south-oriented band of embedded thunderstorms, though radar-reflectivity structures remain messy and disorganized.

Further organization/intensification with a southward translational thrust is possible through the day, as a combination of surface heating and boundary-later warm/moist advection combine to destabilize the foregoing airmass. This will lead to at least isolated potential for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Guidance still varies considerably on the potential for this activity to merge upscale enough for a single, well-developed cold pool, which would create a greater conditional wind threat over parts of west-central/southwestern MO and perhaps into northern AR before encountering decreasing instability. Southern parts of the outlook area have been extended somewhat, and the area widened somewhat, to account for these mesobeta- to convective-scale uncertainties.

Western OK and vicinity

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from mid- late afternoon, with a few perhaps straying into early evening, offering locally strong-severe microbursts.

A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, across southern to northeastern OK and into eastern KS. West of the associated moisture plume, an effective dryline will set up by midafternoon from northwest TX to northwestern OK, representing a differential between more intense heating/mixing to the west and the more strongly capped, moist boundary-layer environment under and nearer the high aloft. That boundary also should conform closely to a wind-shift line and confluence/ convergence axis, west of which winds at the surface will have a substantial westerly component. With further westward extent into the Panhandles, the boundary layer will be too dry to support substantial convection. Within the transition zone, represented by the outlook area, just enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values commonly 1000-2000 J/kg. the dryline should retreat northwestward through the area this evening, but under unfavorably strong (and intensifying) MLCINH, and without appreciable large-scale support, later development is not expected.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240610

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

Synopsis

A progressing western U.S. upper trough is forecast to gradually weaken, as it impinges on a persistent central U.S. ridge. The result will be that the trough gets shunted northeastward toward Montana/Wyoming with time. Meanwhile, weak upper troughing will persist over the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold front will progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie, and the north-central U.S. with time. By the end of the period, the front should stretch from Minnesota southwestward to northeastern Colorado.

Northern Plains southwestward to the Four Corners region

As the western U.S. trough advances eastward, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development across the Intermountain Region, within a diurnally destabilizing airmass. While CAPE will remain limited, moderate southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough will allow some storm organization/longevity at time. This, combined with a deep mixed layer providing support for enhanced downdrafts with the stronger cells, will result in risk for locally severe wind gusts.

More substantial severe risk could evolve across portions of the north-central states, where much greater instability will evolve. Though the airmass should remain capped in most areas, ascent may be sufficient to support local cap breaches by late afternoon to allow isolated storm development. If storms develop, upscale growth near convective outflows would be expected, possibly resulting in evening/overnight MCS development. Large hail would be possible with the initial storms, though with locally damaging gusts likely to be the dominant risk. Still, given the capping that is anticipated, and questions whether ascent will be sufficient to allow storm development, will maintain only conditional 15%/SLGT risk at this time.

Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley area

On the western fringe of the northeastern U.S. trough, moderate northwesterly flow aloft may combine with modest afternoon destabilization to support isolated storm development. Assuming this occurs, a few strong gusts would be possible as storms would move rather quickly southeastward. The main question remains the degree of destabilization which may occur, and thus will introduce only 5%/MRGL risk at this time.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook Summary

Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity, and southward to the southern High Plains during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240741

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TO THE WISCONSIN VICINITY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity, and southward to the southern High Plains during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

Synopsis

An upper trough over the Intermountain West at the start of the period is forecast to eject northeastward across the High Plains into the north-central U.S. by the second half of the period. This will result in weakening of the persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a weak upper low is forecast to shift south-southeastward across the Northeast/New England through the period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying across the north-central U.S. will sharpen and shift southeastward through the second half of the period, as the upper system shifts into/across the northern Plains. This front will likely focus severe storm development during the afternoon and evening hours.

South Dakota vicinity to the Upper Great Lakes

While timing of the ejection of the upper system into/across the north-central U.S. remains a bit uncertain due to differences in the output from various models, a general consensus that afternoon storm initiation will occur across this region exists, as a very unstable airmass evolves diurnally. With flow forecast to veer/increase with height to southwesterly at 40 to 50 kt, shear will support organized/supercell storms. Coverage through the daylight hours may remain isolated across much of the region however, due to low-level capping. Still, any storms which do develop would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Storm coverage may increase overnight as the trough advances and a southwesterly low-level jet develops, with convection – and ongoing severe risk, spreading eastward across the Upper Midwest into the Upper Mississippi Valley into early Tuesday morning

The High Plains

Modest afternoon destabilization forecast across the High Plains from southeastern Montana southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles should support isolated storm development. This development will be aided by increasing large-scale ascent associated with the ejection of the upper trough across the High Plains region during the afternoon. While flow aloft will be stronger with northward extent, supporting a few strong/severe storms with damaging wind potential, the very deep afternoon mixed layer farther south (mixed to/above 700 mb) will likely compensate somewhat for the lack of shear. As such, isolated severe gust potential may extend southward into the southern High Plains.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region

As a weak upper low shifts southeastward across the Northeast, modest afternoon destabilization is expected across portions of the region. While uncertainty regarding ample CAPE development exists, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the southern and western flank of the low will provide sufficient shear for southeastward-moving storms and potentially linear segments/clusters. Presuming at least minimally sufficient afternoon destabilization, stronger storms would pose a risk for damaging gusts locally, into the early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240854 SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Within the faster belt of upper flow across the northern U.S., substantial differences in timing of the disturbances in the flow are manifest from the very start of the medium-range period. On Tuesday/Day 4, an energetic short-wave trough should be crossing the north-central U.S., headed toward the Upper Mississippi Valley/southern Ontario, while an upstream trough crosses western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream one crosses northern Quebec. However, noted differences in both timing and orientation of these features is immediately apparent. The north-central U.S. feature – the one associated with Day-4 severe risk over the Great Lakes region – is roughly 12 hours slower, and evolves to a more negatively tilted configuration in the ECMWF, as compared to the GFS. This results in fairly substantial differences in the surface pattern as well, prohibiting any forecast of the specifics regarding the severe-weather potential on Tuesday. Still, severe-weather risk is apparent despite east-west geographical uncertainties. Thus, will introduce an elongated 15% area across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, given likelihood for existence of a favorably unstable/amply sheared environment in the vicinity of a surface front likely to stretch east-northeastward to west-southwestward across this region. Damaging winds and hail would likely be the primary risks.

By Day 5, differences continue to amplify. Risk for severe weather may evolve across portions of the Northeast (favored by the GFS), and/or parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley (favored by the ECMWF). However, the differences are substantial enough amongst the models to preclude an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low/trough is forecast to be moving across the northwestern U.S. and Canadian Prairie early in the day, but location/timing, and intensity differences with this feature are pronounced. While some severe risk may evolve across parts of the north-central U.S. ahead of this feature and an associated cold front, the differences preclude any areal outlines at this time.

Predictability issues persist through the remainder of the period, with model solutions diverging steadily through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240854 SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Within the faster belt of upper flow across the northern U.S., substantial differences in timing of the disturbances in the flow are manifest from the very start of the medium-range period. On Tuesday/Day 4, an energetic short-wave trough should be crossing the north-central U.S., headed toward the Upper Mississippi Valley/southern Ontario, while an upstream trough crosses western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream one crosses northern Quebec. However, noted differences in both timing and orientation of these features is immediately apparent. The north-central U.S. feature – the one associated with Day-4 severe risk over the Great Lakes region – is roughly 12 hours slower, and evolves to a more negatively tilted configuration in the ECMWF, as compared to the GFS. This results in fairly substantial differences in the surface pattern as well, prohibiting any forecast of the specifics regarding the severe-weather potential on Tuesday. Still, severe-weather risk is apparent despite east-west geographical uncertainties. Thus, will introduce an elongated 15% area across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, given likelihood for existence of a favorably unstable/amply sheared environment in the vicinity of a surface front likely to stretch east-northeastward to west-southwestward across this region. Damaging winds and hail would likely be the primary risks.

By Day 5, differences continue to amplify. Risk for severe weather may evolve across portions of the Northeast (favored by the GFS), and/or parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley (favored by the ECMWF). However, the differences are substantial enough amongst the models to preclude an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low/trough is forecast to be moving across the northwestern U.S. and Canadian Prairie early in the day, but location/timing, and intensity differences with this feature are pronounced. While some severe risk may evolve across parts of the north-central U.S. ahead of this feature and an associated cold front, the differences preclude any areal outlines at this time.

Predictability issues persist through the remainder of the period, with model solutions diverging steadily through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240854 SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Within the faster belt of upper flow across the northern U.S., substantial differences in timing of the disturbances in the flow are manifest from the very start of the medium-range period. On Tuesday/Day 4, an energetic short-wave trough should be crossing the north-central U.S., headed toward the Upper Mississippi Valley/southern Ontario, while an upstream trough crosses western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream one crosses northern Quebec. However, noted differences in both timing and orientation of these features is immediately apparent. The north-central U.S. feature – the one associated with Day-4 severe risk over the Great Lakes region – is roughly 12 hours slower, and evolves to a more negatively tilted configuration in the ECMWF, as compared to the GFS. This results in fairly substantial differences in the surface pattern as well, prohibiting any forecast of the specifics regarding the severe-weather potential on Tuesday. Still, severe-weather risk is apparent despite east-west geographical uncertainties. Thus, will introduce an elongated 15% area across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, given likelihood for existence of a favorably unstable/amply sheared environment in the vicinity of a surface front likely to stretch east-northeastward to west-southwestward across this region. Damaging winds and hail would likely be the primary risks.

By Day 5, differences continue to amplify. Risk for severe weather may evolve across portions of the Northeast (favored by the GFS), and/or parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley (favored by the ECMWF). However, the differences are substantial enough amongst the models to preclude an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low/trough is forecast to be moving across the northwestern U.S. and Canadian Prairie early in the day, but location/timing, and intensity differences with this feature are pronounced. While some severe risk may evolve across parts of the north-central U.S. ahead of this feature and an associated cold front, the differences preclude any areal outlines at this time.

Predictability issues persist through the remainder of the period, with model solutions diverging steadily through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240854 SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Within the faster belt of upper flow across the northern U.S., substantial differences in timing of the disturbances in the flow are manifest from the very start of the medium-range period. On Tuesday/Day 4, an energetic short-wave trough should be crossing the north-central U.S., headed toward the Upper Mississippi Valley/southern Ontario, while an upstream trough crosses western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream one crosses northern Quebec. However, noted differences in both timing and orientation of these features is immediately apparent. The north-central U.S. feature – the one associated with Day-4 severe risk over the Great Lakes region – is roughly 12 hours slower, and evolves to a more negatively tilted configuration in the ECMWF, as compared to the GFS. This results in fairly substantial differences in the surface pattern as well, prohibiting any forecast of the specifics regarding the severe-weather potential on Tuesday. Still, severe-weather risk is apparent despite east-west geographical uncertainties. Thus, will introduce an elongated 15% area across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, given likelihood for existence of a favorably unstable/amply sheared environment in the vicinity of a surface front likely to stretch east-northeastward to west-southwestward across this region. Damaging winds and hail would likely be the primary risks.

By Day 5, differences continue to amplify. Risk for severe weather may evolve across portions of the Northeast (favored by the GFS), and/or parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley (favored by the ECMWF). However, the differences are substantial enough amongst the models to preclude an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low/trough is forecast to be moving across the northwestern U.S. and Canadian Prairie early in the day, but location/timing, and intensity differences with this feature are pronounced. While some severe risk may evolve across parts of the north-central U.S. ahead of this feature and an associated cold front, the differences preclude any areal outlines at this time.

Predictability issues persist through the remainder of the period, with model solutions diverging steadily through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240854 SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Within the faster belt of upper flow across the northern U.S., substantial differences in timing of the disturbances in the flow are manifest from the very start of the medium-range period. On Tuesday/Day 4, an energetic short-wave trough should be crossing the north-central U.S., headed toward the Upper Mississippi Valley/southern Ontario, while an upstream trough crosses western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream one crosses northern Quebec. However, noted differences in both timing and orientation of these features is immediately apparent. The north-central U.S. feature – the one associated with Day-4 severe risk over the Great Lakes region – is roughly 12 hours slower, and evolves to a more negatively tilted configuration in the ECMWF, as compared to the GFS. This results in fairly substantial differences in the surface pattern as well, prohibiting any forecast of the specifics regarding the severe-weather potential on Tuesday. Still, severe-weather risk is apparent despite east-west geographical uncertainties. Thus, will introduce an elongated 15% area across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, given likelihood for existence of a favorably unstable/amply sheared environment in the vicinity of a surface front likely to stretch east-northeastward to west-southwestward across this region. Damaging winds and hail would likely be the primary risks.

By Day 5, differences continue to amplify. Risk for severe weather may evolve across portions of the Northeast (favored by the GFS), and/or parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley (favored by the ECMWF). However, the differences are substantial enough amongst the models to preclude an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low/trough is forecast to be moving across the northwestern U.S. and Canadian Prairie early in the day, but location/timing, and intensity differences with this feature are pronounced. While some severe risk may evolve across parts of the north-central U.S. ahead of this feature and an associated cold front, the differences preclude any areal outlines at this time.

Predictability issues persist through the remainder of the period, with model solutions diverging steadily through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

..Goss.. 08/24/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 24

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, August 25

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, August 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Friday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Saturday, August 31

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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